Comprehensive Analysis Report on Factors Influencing Gold Prices and Today's Volatility Events

GateAI | February 12, 2026

1. Introduction

Gold prices continued to hit record highs in 2026, becoming a core asset of interest for global investors. With the rapid development of cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and DeFi sectors, gold prices are influenced not only by traditional financial markets but also interact complexly with on-chain assets, stablecoins, tokenized gold (such as XAUT and PAXG), and other emerging financial instruments. This report synthesizes recent analyses from top investment research institutions, combines on-chain data and market events, systematically reviews the factors affecting gold prices, and highlights whether any events today have impacted gold price fluctuations and their specific effects.

2. Analysis of Top Investment Research Institutions on Gold Price Impact
2.1 Institutional Perspectives and Forecasts
2.1.1 Major Institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS
Goldman Sachs: Projects accelerated upward movement in 2026, with year-end target price raised significantly from $5,000 to $6,300, and 2027 target at $6,600. Key reasons include accelerated central bank gold purchases (estimated 800 tons in 2026), increased investor allocation (target 5%), and ongoing geopolitical risks. In the short term, gold price volatility is notably affected by the rebound of the US dollar and Federal Reserve policies, but institutions see these as technical corrections, with the long-term trend still upward(Tiger Brokers).
UBS: Maintains a cautiously optimistic stance, believing gold prices have not peaked but are overheated in the short term and need cooling down. Forecasts an average price of $5,200 in 2026, with support around $4,500 at year-end. Emphasizes continuous ETF capital inflows, a weakening dollar, and strong physical demand from emerging markets like China. Risks include short-term speculative positions leading to deep corrections(Tiger Brokers).
Morgan Stanley: The most optimistic, with a target price also at $6,300, emphasizing demand exceeding expectations, accelerated central bank gold purchases, increased investor allocation, and geopolitical risks. Its core views are highly aligned with Goldman Sachs(Tiger Brokers).
2.1.2 Other Institutions’ Views
JPMorgan, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, among others, forecast 2026 gold prices reaching new highs, ranging between $5,000 and $6,200. Main drivers include central bank gold purchases, US dollar depreciation, ETF capital inflows, and global inflation expectations(Money; Yahoo Finance).
2.2 Core Factors Affecting Gold Prices
2.2.1 Macroeconomics and Central Bank Actions
Central Bank Gold Purchases: Over the past three years, central banks have net accumulated over 1,000 tons of gold annually, far above historical averages. A 2025 survey shows 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold holdings over the next 12 months, especially in emerging markets(World Gold Council).
US Dollar Weakening: The dollar fell to a four-year low in early 2026, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset(LinkedIn).
Geopolitical and Inflation Factors: The independence of the Federal Reserve, fiscal sustainability, de-dollarization trends, trade frictions, etc., all contribute to rising gold demand(Amundi Research).
2.2.2 Investor Behavior and ETF Flows
ETF Capital Inflows: Continuous net inflows into gold ETFs in the US and China have driven gold prices to new highs. Investor allocation has increased from 3% in March 2021 to 3.2% currently, with a target of 5%, leaving significant room for growth(Tiger Brokers).
Investor Structure Changes: Dominated by institutional investors, retail investors participate in gold price movements via on-chain tools like tokenized gold, forming a new market structure in emerging markets(Coindesk).
2.2.3 On-Chain Assets and Cryptocurrency Market Impact
Tokenized Gold: Market cap of gold-backed stablecoins like XAUT and PAXG has surpassed $5.12 billion, with trading volumes exceeding most traditional ETFs. XAUT accounts for 75% of trading volume, and PAXG is favored by US regulators. On-chain gold assets are highly correlated with spot gold prices, becoming core assets in DeFi, Web3, and emerging financial systems(AInvest; Baltex).
On-Chain Data and Price Feeds: Chainlink and other oracles deploy gold price feeds across multiple chains, with deviation thresholds of 0.2%-0.5%, ensuring on-chain assets stay synchronized with spot gold prices. Price feed contracts are deployed on mainnets like Ethereum, BNB Chain, Optimism, Arbitrum, supporting DeFi, RWA, and other scenarios(Chainlink; Chainlink Docs).
3. Analysis of Events Impacting Gold Price Fluctuations Today (February 12, 2026)
3.1 Event Overview and Timeline
3.1.1 Federal Reserve Chair Nomination Event
Overview: On February 2, the U.S. President nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair. Market interpretation suggests a more hawkish Fed policy, leading to a dollar rebound and significant volatility in gold prices on February 2, with market value evaporating trillions of dollars in a single day. Some analysts see this as a sign of a trust crisis, with increased politicization of monetary policy adding uncertainty(LinkedIn).
Impact Duration: February 2-4, gold prices fell from $5,600 to $4,900, down over 9%. Subsequently, from February 5 to 12, prices gradually recovered within a range of $4,900-$5,100(Tiger Brokers; FXLeaders).
3.1.2 Non-Farm Payroll Data and Dollar Rebound
Overview: On February 9, US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations significantly, unemployment rate declined, and the dollar rebounded sharply. As a safe-haven, gold faced short-term pressure, leading to a correction in gold prices. Dollar buying drove prices down initially, but ETF inflows and central bank gold purchases supported a rebound in gold prices(FXLeaders).
Impact Duration: February 9-12, short-term dip in gold prices, then on February 12 during Asian hours, prices again crossed $5,000, reaching a new high of $5,111 in New York before retreating, closing below $5,000(FXLeaders).
3.1.3 On-Chain Asset Flows and DeFi Liquidity
Overview: On February 12, trading volume of on-chain tokenized gold assets (like XAUT, PAXG) surged, with protocols such as Mantle and Baltex enabling cross-chain instant exchanges of gold assets, driving on-chain gold prices to move in tandem with spot prices. Price feed contracts (e.g., Chainlink) triggered deviation thresholds on networks like Optimism and BNB Chain, updating gold price data in real-time to ensure accuracy(Chainlink; Baltex).
Impact Duration: All day on February 12, on-chain gold prices showed high correlation with spot gold prices, with arbitrage opportunities emerging in some DeFi protocols, boosting liquidity and increasing volatility(.
3.2 Impact Analysis of Events
3.2.1 Gold Price Fluctuation Structure

| Time Period | Main Event | Gold Price Trend | Impact Analysis |

|------------------|------------------------------|--------------------|--------------------------------------------|

| February 2 | Fed Chair Nomination, Dollar Rebound | $5,600→$4,900 | Technical correction, market confidence dampened |

| February 9 | Strong Non-Farm Payroll Data, Dollar Buying | $5,100→$4,900 | Safe-haven demand declined, short-term pressure |

| February 12 | DeFi on-chain asset flows, ETF inflows | $4,900→$5,111→$5,000| On-chain assets and spot prices synchronized, arbitrage opportunities increased |

3.2.2 Interaction Between On-Chain Assets and Spot Gold Prices
Tokenized Gold Trading Volume: From January to February 2026, market cap of on-chain gold assets like XAUT and PAXG surpassed $5.12 billion, with trading volumes exceeding most ETFs, becoming a key driver of gold price volatility)AInvest; Coindesk(.
Chainlink Price Feeds: Deployed across multiple chains, with deviation thresholds triggering real-time updates to ensure accurate prices for DeFi and RWA assets. Thresholds are 0.3% on Ethereum mainnet, 0.2% on Optimism/BNB Chain, and 0.5% on Arbitrum, providing a basis for arbitrage and liquidity flows)Chainlink; Chainlink Docs(.
DeFi Arbitrage and Liquidity: Protocols like Baltex enable instant cross-chain exchanges of gold assets, increasing arbitrage opportunities and on-chain liquidity, which further amplifies gold price volatility)Baltex.
4. Overall Analysis and Perspectives
4.1 Integration of Institutional Analysis and On-Chain Data

Top investment research institutions agree that the long-term trend of gold prices is upward, driven by central bank gold purchases, US dollar depreciation, ETF capital inflows, and geopolitical risks. On-chain tokenized gold assets are highly correlated with spot prices and have become an important part of emerging market structures. On-chain price feed mechanisms ensure synchronized asset prices, while DeFi protocols enhance liquidity, creating new drivers for gold price volatility.

4.2 Specific Impact of Today’s Events on Gold Price Fluctuations

On February 12, 2026, gold price fluctuations were mainly driven by the Federal Reserve Chair nomination, non-farm payroll data, and on-chain asset flows. The Fed event triggered a technical correction, while strong payroll data boosted dollar buying, and on-chain asset flows and DeFi arbitrage contributed to a rebound. The interaction between on-chain data and spot markets intensified volatility and increased arbitrage opportunities.

4.3 Risk Alerts and Investment Recommendations
Short-term gold price volatility is increasing. Investors should monitor Federal Reserve policies, dollar trends, and on-chain asset flows, set stop-losses, and guard against technical corrections.
Tokenized gold assets (like XAUT and PAXG) are highly liquid and closely linked to spot gold prices, suitable for DeFi and Web3 investors, but attention should be paid to contract security, price feed mechanisms, and cross-chain liquidity risks.
Long-term, central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, and on-chain asset structures will continue to support rising gold prices. It is recommended to monitor interactions between on-chain data and traditional markets.
5. Conclusion

In 2026, gold prices are driven by multiple factors including top investment research institutions, central banks, ETF flows, and on-chain assets, with a long-term upward trend. Today’s volatility was influenced by the Federal Reserve Chair nomination, non-farm payroll data, and on-chain asset flows, leading to increased fluctuations and arbitrage opportunities. On-chain tokenized gold assets are highly correlated with spot prices and have become a vital part of emerging financial systems. Investors should pay attention to macro policies, on-chain data, and asset liquidity, allocate assets reasonably, set stop-losses, and guard against short-term risks.

6. References
Tiger Brokers
Money
Yahoo Finance
World Gold Council
Amundi Research
LinkedIn
AInvest
Coindesk
Baltex
Chainlink
Chainlink Docs
FXLeaders

This report is comprehensively prepared by GateAI based on authoritative data and on-chain information, aiming to provide users with objective, in-depth, and structured analysis of factors influencing gold prices.