First Capital Futures: Supply and demand accumulation, soda ash futures continue to weaken

On the supply side, Xuzhou Fengcheng equipment has resumed operation, leading to an increase in soda ash production. Some companies have slowed shipments, resulting in inventory accumulation. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5811 million tons, an increase of 36,900 tons from the previous week, a rise of 2.39%. The pending orders for soda ash companies increased by 2 days to 12 days. This week, southern alkali enterprises are expected to recover, with no new maintenance scheduled, and overall production is expected to show an increasing trend.

On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is gradually slowing down, and stockpiling has basically come to an end. It is expected that this week, one float glass production line of 1,000 tons will be shut down, with a weekly output estimated at 1.0476 million tons. The photovoltaic glass production line is expected to remain stable, with a capacity of 608,700 tons.

In summary, soda ash operating rates remain relatively high, coupled with the release of new capacity. Since downstream float glass still has maintenance expectations, overall soda ash supply and demand are relatively weak. It is expected that short-term soda ash futures will remain volatile and weak, with attention to coal prices and plant changes. (First Capital Futures)