Is the Non-Farm Payroll data reliable? The job market is booming, and the Federal Reserve and the crypto market are caught in a double dilemma

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered an “better-than-expected” January non-farm payroll report on February 11—adding 130,000 jobs, nearly double economists’ expectations of 75,000.

If you only look at the headline, it’s undoubtedly a morale booster. But if you look three lines down, you’ll find another set of numbers buried in the press release: the 2025 employment growth forecast was sharply revised from 584,000 down to just 181,000, and the average monthly increase plummeted from 48,000 to 15,000.

This isn’t rhetoric; it’s an “aesthetic patch” in statistics.

As observers of the crypto industry, we have to ask: when the global risk asset pricing anchor—the U.S. employment data—begins to show a clear disconnect between perception and reality, who are we really pricing for? And in this cycle of de-leveraging driven by Gate’s deep involvement, how should investors distinguish between “paper prosperity” and “real demand”?

Good Non-Farm Numbers, Bad Truth

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi issued a rare blunt warning after the data release: “The labor market remains fragile and highly susceptible to shocks.”

His argument is razor-sharp: of the 130,000 new jobs in January, 82,000 came from the healthcare sector, accounting for over 63%. Excluding this single industry, the U.S. private sector is nearly stagnant. Even more telling, employment in manufacturing, finance, and federal government is shrinking.

This is an extremely distorted growth structure.

The increase in healthcare employment has structural reasons—aging population and post-pandemic compensatory hiring—but it also exposes the “single-leg support” risk of the labor market. Zandi even bluntly stated, “If anything goes wrong in healthcare, the entire employment market becomes extremely vulnerable.”

Meanwhile, another set of data is sounding a sharp alarm: in January 2026, U.S. companies announced layoffs exceeding 108,000, a 205% surge from December, marking the worst January since 2009. Tech giants like Amazon, Meta, Pinterest continue to cut jobs, while job openings have fallen to 6.5 million—the lowest since 2020.

This is a classic case of “surface-level heat, actual stagnation”: macro numbers haven’t collapsed, but micro-level experiences are already feeling the chill.

Data Revisions and Trust Cracks

The strangeness of the non-farm report isn’t limited to its structure.

White House economic advisor Hatzius had issued a “preemptive warning” before the data release: due to slowing labor force growth and productivity gains, future employment figures “may appear lower,” but the public shouldn’t panic. Federal Reserve Chair Powell also admitted that policymakers face a “very tricky and rare situation”—demand and supply for labor are both declining.

This explains why the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, yet layoffs are spreading.

Supply-side contraction (tightening immigration policies, peaking labor participation rate) artificially lowered the unemployment rate, while demand-side weakness (frozen hiring, declining job openings) was masked by downward revisions of historical data. The 2025 employment forecast was cut by 400,000—not a statistical error, but a belated acknowledgment of the economy’s true temperature over the past year.

For the crypto market, the issue has never been “are non-farm numbers good,” but rather what the market should believe.

If you trust the headline, then the Fed has no reason to cut rates, and liquidity tightening will continue. But if you believe the “revised truth,” then the employment market has already entered a freezing period, and recession trades could resurface at any moment. This split is the root cause of the intense volatility in the crypto markets on the night of February 11.

Market Language: From Liquidations to Deleveraging

On the night of the non-farm release, Gate’s market data recorded this honest and brutal price correction.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly hit $69,000 on the release day, with bullish momentum. However, after the data came out, BTC rapidly plunged below $66,000, with a short-term volatility exceeding $3,000. As of writing on February 12, BTC/USDT on Gate was around $67,500, with bulls and bears repeatedly battling at the $68,000 level.

Ethereum (ETH) fared even worse. Seen as a “liquidity thermometer” for the crypto market, ETH dropped sharply from above $2,000 to below $1,900 immediately after the non-farm report. As of February 12, ETH/USDT on Gate was about $1,965, with a weak rebound, still unable to reclaim the $2,000 psychological level.

Coinglass data shows that over the past 24 hours, more than 147,000 traders were liquidated, with over $470 million in total liquidation—most of which were long positions.

This isn’t a black swan event; it’s a re-pricing of expectations.

The “paper prosperity” in the employment market isn’t the real issue; it’s the market’s excessive optimism about the Fed’s pivot. The gap of 130,000 vs. 75,000 is enough to cause painful losses for leveraged funds. On Gate, perpetual contract funding rates have generally turned negative, indicating that professional traders are actively reducing risk exposure, signaling a typical “deleveraging reset” phase.

Summary

Non-farm data will continue to be released, revisions will keep happening, and macro narratives will swing between “soft landing” and “hard landing.”

But one thing is becoming increasingly clear: when employment data from major economies begins to show signs of “aesthetic manipulation,” the risk of relying on a single macro indicator for asset pricing is rapidly increasing.

That’s why, in this cycle of adjustment, some institutional investors on Gate haven’t exited the market entirely—they’ve shifted funds from high-leverage mainstream coins to mid- and small-cap assets with clear ecosystem progress. This isn’t risk aversion; it’s a proactive divestment from “macro noise.”

The truth about the employment market may always lag behind, but on-chain token distribution, contract funding rates, and order book depth are speaking the truth every moment.

On February 12, BTC on Gate was around $67,000, and ETH was about $1,965. These prices aren’t euphoric or despairing—they’re simply waiting. Waiting for the market to distinguish between paper prosperity and genuine demand.

And the real bottom often emerges at the moment of maximum consensus fracture.