The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut suspense reignites: January non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the crypto market experiences a tug-of-war between bulls and bears

Non-Farm “Surprise” Rewrites the Rate Cut Timeline

On February 11th, Eastern Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered a surprisingly strong report: 1 million new non-farm jobs in January, far exceeding economists’ expectations of 550,000 and doubling the revised December figure of 480,000.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%, hitting a low not seen since August 2025. This is a set of highly “temperature-different” data—just before the release, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was still cautioning about a slowdown in job growth, yet the 130,000 new jobs undoubtedly showed the labor market’s resilience exceeded almost all pessimistic expectations.

The strong non-farm data quickly led to a revision of interest rate expectations. According to the latest CME FedWatch bets: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in March plummeted from 21.7% before the data release to 6.0%, and the chance of a rate cut in April also dropped from around 40% to about 20%. Traders pushed back the first expected rate cut from June to July, and the probability of three rate cuts this year significantly decreased.

This marks a classic macro narrative shift: when “strong employment” meets “persistent inflation,” the Fed has no reason to rush to signal easing.

Dual Reflection in the Crypto Market: Rise Then Fall, Delayed Rate Cut Pricing

After the non-farm data was released, the crypto market’s movement was not a simple “bad news - decline” one-way reaction but experienced a complex emotional rebound.

First phase (immediate after data): traders were optimistic about a “soft landing” for the economy, with U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies briefly rising in tandem, and Bitcoin temporarily breaking above $68,000 resistance.

Second phase (absorption and re-pricing): as the market fully digested the mid-term implications of delayed rate cuts, risk assets came under renewed pressure. As of the morning of February 12, Bitcoin on major spot platforms like Gate fell back to around $67,558, down 2.14% in 24 hours; Ethereum also declined to $1,952, a 3.19% drop.

This pricing logic is clear and direct: retreating rate cut expectations = tightening liquidity expectations = downward revision of valuations for rate-sensitive risk assets. Notably, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also released a downward revision of the 2025 non-farm benchmark by 898,000 people—partially easing extreme market panic but not reversing the short-term cautious sentiment.

Latest Market Conditions as of February 12

To help readers precisely anchor the current market position, the following data is from Gate’s real-time USD quotes as of February 12, 2026:

From Gate’s private wealth management perspective, the current market volatility is more a short-term correction driven by macro expectation gaps rather than a reversal of the crypto fundamentals. Bitcoin’s market share remains high at 58.65%, indicating capital is still consolidating around core assets.

Divergence in Consensus: What Are Traders Betting On?

An intriguing phenomenon is that the White House continues to send dovish signals. President Trump publicly stated after the data release that “the U.S. should pay the lowest interest rates globally,” and his economic advisor Hassett emphasized that “the Fed still has ample room to cut rates.” This sharply contrasts with traders rapidly lowering their expectations for rate cuts.

This divergence reveals a core feature of macro trading in 2026: the market no longer blindly trusts policy guidance but prefers to price assets based on real-time data independently.

For crypto traders, this implies two key judgments:

1. Short-term volatility source shift: the core contradiction in the market shifts from “whether to cut rates” to “when and how many times to cut.” Any unexpectedly high inflation data (such as the upcoming CPI release this Friday) could trigger adjustments similar to those after the non-farm report.
2. Structural opportunities emerge: as suggested by Gate’s private wealth team, periods of increased volatility are precisely opportunities to optimize portfolio structure. Using BTC and ETH as core holdings (recommended allocation 40%-50%), and leveraging Gate Earn and staking to earn holding-period yields, is a pragmatic strategy to navigate cycles.

Outlook: From “Rate Cut Trading” to “Data Validation Trading”

The non-farm report did not close the door on rate cuts but did raise the threshold for them. CME data shows the market now prices the first rate cut in July, with an estimated total of about 51 basis points cut this year.

The key variables ahead are quite clear:

• February 13 CPI report: if inflation accelerates more than expected month-over-month, the probability of a June rate cut will further diminish;
• Trump policy implementation pace: developments in tariffs, immigration, and fiscal spending bills will influence the sustainability of employment data;
• On-chain indicators and ETF capital flows: inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs remain a real window into institutional sentiment.

Summary

This February 2026 non-farm report may mark a small but crucial turning point in macro trading logic: shifting from “expecting the Fed to pivot” to “accepting higher and longer-lasting interest rates.” For the crypto market, this is a stress test for valuation support and a practical examination of trading tools and risk management.

On the Gate platform, we see smart money making choices: not panicking and exiting but using volatility to rebalance assets. As emphasized by Gate’s private wealth management, market fluctuations will eventually pass, and those who optimize their structure and hold core positions during turbulence are often best positioned to seize opportunities when the next narrative begins.