LINK breaks below key technical level from the high US dollar, with the divergence between institutions and retail investors intensifying

When the leading oracle token LINK drops from a two-digit USD price, the on-chain liquidation data is already speaking. The latest price is $8.56, down 7.39% over the past 7 days, and this is not just a fluctuation in numbers but a fierce collision in the narrative of the entire sector.

Many entrants entered at high USD prices with confidence, but now their accounts are showing unrealized losses. This reflects more than just a price decline; it indicates a market re-evaluation of LINK’s fundamentals—whether it’s concepts like RWA tokenization or AI data layers sounding cutting-edge, the selling of funds is the most genuine vote.

Strong fundamentals but hard to support USD price levels

Oracles are widely regarded as fundamental infrastructure for blockchain, and a stable development outlook should provide stable price support. But reality is often more complex.

LINK’s development activity is indeed among the industry leaders, and related application scenarios are continuously expanding. However, there is a difficult gap between technological progress and price movement. In a bull market, infrastructure tokens tend to lag in gains; during bear markets or corrections, they often fall the fastest. This is the dilemma of the infrastructure sector—its stability becomes its biggest shortcoming in the market.

Technical breakdown is complete; no safe zone below USD

The technical charts give the most direct answer. The 7-day, 25-day, and 99-day moving averages have all been broken, indicating the bulls’ defense line has been breached. The RSI indicator also shows strong selling pressure, and the entire technical picture is in disarray.

Following this downward trend, the $8 USD round number has become the next key support level to watch. If this support is also broken effectively, LINK may seek even lower support points. For technical investors, the current environment has shifted from “buying on dips” to “reducing positions on rallies.”

On-chain data reveals market turning: capital is accelerating outflow

From on-chain data, over the past week, capital outflows have exceeded 4.5 million USDT, and open interest in futures contracts has fallen to $458 million, hitting a new low this year. These two data points clearly signal that market participants are collectively exiting.

This large-scale capital withdrawal is not just a technical correction but a change in participants’ short-term outlook. Retail investors’ stop-loss and exit accelerate the downward price movement.

Grayscale still holds, retail investors are starting to flee

Contrasting data reveal the most interesting contradiction in the market. Grayscale’s LINK-related ETF products still hold assets worth up to $69 million, and while institutional funds may be adjusting their positions, overall they remain resilient.

Meanwhile, retail investors are collectively cutting losses. The divergence between the two is now very clear—institutions view the price with a long-term perspective, while retail investors are scared out by the short-term decline. This divergence often signals the final stage of market uncertainty before forming a new consensus.

Does LINK still have a chance? Different answers for long-term and short-term

If your investment horizon is measured in years, now might be a relatively reasonable entry point into the oracle sector. As the leader in oracles, LINK’s long-term value will not fundamentally change because of a single USD price drop; the key is whether it can withstand the cycle’s bottom.

But if you are a short-term trader, the current environment is not friendly. Without clear reversal signals, the risk of further downside remains greater than the chance of a rebound. The $8 USD zone could become a new testing point; until new support is confirmed, participation should be cautious.