A $70M+ Unrealized Loss: Breaking Down One Whale's Aggressive Long Positions

The crypto markets delivered a punishing week for one high-leverage trader, with their account bleeding through multiple days of downward pressure. The portfolio has hit its lowest valuation mark since October 2025, marking a critical inflection point. With an unrealized loss hovering around $73-74M—and briefly touching $90M during intraday volatility—this trader’s massive concentration in long positions is now under serious scrutiny.

The current portfolio structure tells the story of pure directional conviction: approximately $794.5M deployed across perpetual futures contracts, exclusively on the long side with zero short positions offsetting the risk. This is a bet-the-farm approach, and right now, it’s underwater. The cumulative unrealized PnL sits at roughly -$69.7M, translating to a return-on-equity (ROE) of approximately -45%. Yet liquidation remains a distant concern—the margin buffer of $128.8M still provides substantial cushion.

The Full Picture: $794.5M in Perpetual Positions

The account structure reveals a portfolio designed for maximum long exposure. Every dollar is committed to the upside, with no hedging mechanisms in place. This creates a scenario where any downside move compounds across all positions simultaneously. At current prices (BTC $67.72K, ETH $1.98K, SOL $81.01 as of Feb 12, 2026), the account is experiencing significant paper losses without any diversification or protective strategies.

ETH Leading the Charge: $644M at 5x Leverage

Ethereum dominates the portfolio as the primary driver of losses. The position consists of approximately 223K ETH held via a 5x cross-margin long, valued at roughly $644M. The entry price averaged around $3,161.85, whereas current valuations are substantially lower, resulting in over $62M in unrealized losses on this leg alone.

The liquidation price for this position sits near $2,187, providing what appears to be comfortable breathing room. With a margin buffer of approximately $128.8M supporting this ETH position, forced liquidation scenarios seem unlikely in the near term. However, if volatility intensifies and ETH prices compress further, this position represents the greatest vulnerability in the entire portfolio.

BTC and SOL: Smaller Yet Still Stinging

Bitcoin comprises a secondary but substantial component at roughly $87.8M in notional value, also structured as a 5x cross-margin long. The entry sits around $91,506, while current pricing near $67.72K creates an unrealized loss of approximately $3.65M on this leg. With $17.6M in available margin, this position remains safely above liquidation thresholds.

Solana, positioned as the most aggressive leverage point, carries a 10x cross-margin long worth approximately $62.6M. Entry price near $130.19 contrasts sharply with current levels around $81.01, generating roughly $4M in floating losses. The concentrated leverage on this smaller position adds to the overall portfolio drawdown, though it represents a smaller absolute loss compared to the Ethereum holding.

The Margin Buffer: Why Liquidation Isn’t Imminent

Despite the substantial unrealized losses, the structural design of the portfolio—with its deep margin reserves—keeps liquidation off the immediate horizon. The total margin buffer of $128.8M acts as a shock absorber, allowing the account to weather significant additional price declines before hitting forced liquidation levels. This calculated approach to leverage management suggests the trader anticipated volatility and structured positions accordingly.

Adding Fuel to the Fire: The $20M USDC Injection

Perhaps the most revealing aspect of this saga occurred 12 hours ago. After maintaining silence for approximately 45 days, this whale deposited an additional $20M in USDC directly into the account. This isn’t a sign of panic—rather, it represents a conviction play. By injecting fresh capital into a deeply underwater position, the trader is essentially averaging down or preparing to increase position size at current valuations.

This move signals either remarkable confidence in a near-term recovery or a calculated long-term accumulation strategy at depressed prices. Either way, it demonstrates that the trader isn’t capitulating; instead, they’re doubling down on their directional thesis.

What Comes Next?

The portfolio’s immediate fate hinges on whether price supports hold or break further. The margin structure provides runway, but not unlimited runway. The trader’s patience—evidenced by the recent capital injection—suggests conviction, yet markets have a way of testing even the strongest resolve. The real question isn’t whether liquidation is possible, but whether the trader can maintain conviction long enough for a recovery scenario to materialize.

Whale address: 0xb317d2bc2d3d2df5fa441b5bae0ab9d8b07283ae