Is the current market bottoming out or just waiting on the sidelines? A 50% plunge! Bitcoin drops below 66,000, is this panic selling or a golden opportunity?

Bitcoin has been halved from its all-time high of $126,000, Ethereum plummeted over 60%, and the entire network experienced liquidations of $458 million, with 140,000 traders being wiped out. The market is engulfed in "extreme fear." Is this a crisis or a turning point?

Today's news: Multiple negative factors piling up, market panic spreading
On February 12, 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced a "Black Wednesday," with multiple negative news events erupting simultaneously, causing market sentiment to weaken rapidly.
Macro perspective: The US January non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations of 65,000, marking the largest increase since April 2025. Strong employment data dampened expectations of Fed rate cuts, pushing traders to delay the first rate cut from June to July.
Industry risk: Chicago-based crypto lending platform BlockFills announced a suspension of customer deposits and withdrawals, citing Bitcoin's decline and market downturn, sparking fears of a 2022 industry crisis, further fueling panic.
Regulatory updates: Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee announced that Hong Kong plans to issue the first stablecoin issuance licenses next month, aiming to establish a global digital asset innovation hub.
Capital outlook: Nicholas Peach, head of iShares Asia-Pacific at BlackRock, stated at Consensus Hong Kong that if Asian investment portfolios allocate 1% of assets to cryptocurrencies, it could bring in nearly $2 trillion in incremental capital.

Market deep dive: Bitcoin and Ethereum technical battle
Bitcoin (BTC)
Current status: As of this morning, Bitcoin spot prices fluctuate between $67,000 and $68,000. It briefly fell below $66,000 within 24 hours, dropping over 4%, retracing 50% from its December 2025 high of $126,000.
Key technical levels:
Support: $65,000–$66,000 is a short-term critical support zone; losing this could see a drop to $63,000. $60,000 is a strong support level.
Resistance: $68,600 marks the bull-bear dividing line; a breakout could target $70,000. The $72,000–$73,500 zone is a strong resistance area.

Ethereum (ETH)
Current status: Ethereum's trend is weaker than Bitcoin's, with a current price around $1,940. It touched a 24-hour low of $1,906.69, down over 5%, retracing more than 60% from its July 2025 high of $4,955.
Key technical levels:
Support: $1,900 is a short-term critical support; losing this could see a decline to $1,850. $1,800 is a strong support platform.
Resistance: $2,000 is a short-term resistance; a breakout could target $2,050. The $2,200 level is a medium-term resistance.

Today's trading strategy: Seek structural opportunities amid defense
The current price has entered the "golden pit" zone, suitable for dollar-cost averaging or grid trading. Position sizes should be strictly controlled, avoiding full positions at once. It is recommended that holdings do not exceed 10% of total assets, employing a pyramiding approach.
Contract traders: Market volatility is intense; prioritize waiting. For longs, wait until prices firmly break above key resistance levels (Bitcoin $68,600, Ethereum $2,000); for shorts, beware of oversold rebounds.

Specific operational suggestions:
Bitcoin short-term: Light long positions above $65,000 with a stop-loss at $64,500, targeting $68,000; if it drops below $64,500, consider reversing to short with a target of $63,000.
Ethereum short-term: Light long positions above $1,900 with a stop-loss at $1,880, targeting $2,000; if it drops below $1,880, consider waiting or lightly shorting.
Mid-term strategy: The market is still in a volatile correction phase. Post-non-farm data uncertainty remains. It’s advisable to wait and see until the trend becomes clearer before deploying.

Institutional views: Divergence in consensus
Pessimistic voices:
According to Polymarket, there is an 82% implied probability that Bitcoin will fall to $65,000 this year, and about a 60% chance it will drop below $55,000. Citigroup analysts pointed out that US spot ETF fund inflows have significantly cooled, with insufficient new demand, and long-term holders are beginning to worry about Bitcoin’s cyclical weakness.

Optimistic outlook:
JPMorgan’s latest report raised expectations for the crypto market, believing that despite a sharp short-term correction, institutional inflows and clearer regulations will support a recovery of digital assets in 2026. The full-year capital inflow is expected to be led by institutions, driving the market higher.

Industry giants’ actions:
Val Vavilov stated that this round of sharp declines presents a buying opportunity, and plans to rebalance portfolios by increasing Bitcoin holdings at low prices. Meanwhile, iShares Bitcoin ETP added 660,000 securities, indicating ongoing institutional deployment.

Market outlook
Short-term outlook: The crypto market is in a stabilization and recovery phase after a major drop. Focus on whether Bitcoin can hold above $68,600 and whether Ethereum can break through $2,000. Breaking key resistance could extend the rebound; losing support might lead to further lows.
Medium-term factors: If Ethereum’s EIP-8025 proposal is implemented, it will enhance network performance, benefiting Ethereum’s ecosystem long-term. Bitcoin needs to wait for clearer Fed monetary policy signals; expectations of rate cuts could trigger a market rebound.

The Fear Index has fallen to 11, with despair spreading across the market. Historical experience shows that extreme fear often signals a stage-buying opportunity. Will this market logic lead to a different trend this time?#Gate广场发帖领五万美金红包