#Gate广场发帖领五万美金红包 Reviewing the Bitcoin bear market cycle, at what price level can we bottom out?

Early morning on February 6th, Bitcoin fell below $60,000, causing panic in the crypto community. Since the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, Bitcoin has dropped 52%. But looking back at Bitcoin’s 15-year price history, a 52% decline is just “a drop in the bucket” historically.

1. The “Drop Percentage Code” of Bitcoin Bear Markets

Historical data reveals a clear pattern: the maximum decline in each bear market cycle has been decreasing, from 94% to 87%, 84%, 77%, with each cycle narrowing by 5-10 percentage points.

• 2011→2013: decrease of 7 percentage points (94%→87%)

• 2013→2017: decrease of 3 percentage points (87%→84%)

• 2017→2021: decrease of 7 percentage points (84%→77%)

• Average decrease per cycle: about 5-7 percentage points

Core reasons:

1. Market cap base enlarges, reducing volatility
In 2011, Bitcoin’s market cap was only a few tens of millions of dollars; a whale’s sell-off could trigger a 94% crash. By 2026, even if halved to $60,000, the market cap remains over $1 trillion. A further 30-40% drop would require selling thousands of times the current volume.

2. Institutional entry provides “liquidity buffer”
Before 2018, mainly retail investors and miners, panic selling easily caused cascades; after 2022, firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale hold hundreds of thousands of BTC via ETFs, preventing panic sales and forming a “safety net.” As of the end of January 2026, the total holdings of US spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded 900,000 BTC, worth over $70 billion, with a “lock-in effect” reducing available supply for selling.

3. Evolution from “speculative asset” to “asset class”
2011-2013: a geek toy driven by emotion; 2017-2021: regarded as “digital gold,” lacking valuation anchors; post-2025, ETF approvals, stablecoin legislation, and “strategic reserve” plans make Bitcoin a mainstream financial asset, with volatility continuing to decline.

4. Reduced supply shocks from halving cycles
The past four halving cycles have significantly impacted prices; the first halving in 2012 cut daily new issuance from 7,200 to 3,600 BTC, creating a huge supply shock; the 2024 halving will reduce daily issuance from 9,000 to 4,500 BTC, same percentage decrease but in absolute terms less, diminishing impact. The “deflationary effect” on supply and the “speculative frenzy” on demand are cooling simultaneously, narrowing volatility.

2. If history repeats, where is the “bottom” this time?

Based on the “decreasing each cycle” pattern, three scenarios are projected:

• Scenario 1: Optimistic assumption, decline narrows to 65%
Bottom price = 126,000 × (1 - 65%) = $44,100. From $60,000 to $44,100, there’s still 26% room to fall.
Supporting reason: institutions are withdrawing and observing.

• Scenario 2: Neutral assumption, decline of 70%-72%
Bottom price: 70% corresponds to $37,800; 72% corresponds to $35,280. From $60,000, there’s still 37%-41% room to fall.
Supporting reason: strictly following the historical 5-7 percentage point decreasing pattern, which is a reasonable adjustment range.

• Scenario 3: Pessimistic assumption, decline back to 75%-80%
Bottom price: 75% corresponds to $31,500; 80% corresponds to $25,200. From $70,000 to $25,000-$31,500, a further 50% drop.
Supporting reason: US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all crash simultaneously; “safe-haven attributes” fail; ETF holdings could be dumped by institutions with a single click; Trump’s tariff policies might trigger a global recession; industry talent leaves, VC retreats, confidence collapses.

3. Don’t be afraid of missing out

Missing the bottom doesn’t mean you should panic; cryptocurrencies are not the only chance to turn your life around.

• Missed $150 in 2015, still had a chance at $3,200 in 2018

• Missed $3,200 in 2018, still had a chance at $15,000 in 2022
Premise: survive until the next cycle, don’t go all-in, don’t exit completely.

Three real cases:

1. Lao Zhang (heavy position at $3,200): in June 2019, it rose to $13,000 but he didn’t sell; in December, it fell back to $7,000, cutting losses, with less than 1x profit, missing the June 2021 high of $69,000.

2. Xiao Li (bought at $3,200): follows the rule “don’t sell until it reaches $50,000,” sold 50% at $63,000 in April 2021, locking in 15x profit; held the remaining 50% until November at $69,000, with an average profit of 18x.

3. Lao Wang (monthly investment of 1,000 yuan): started dollar-cost averaging in December 2018 for three years, with an average cost of about $12,000; sold at $69,000 in November 2021, earning about 4.7x profit, simple to execute without timing.

Key takeaway: Bottom fishing isn’t the most important; holding steady and setting good take-profit plans are key; dollar-cost averaging suits ordinary people, and phased buying and selling is always relatively better.

Summary: Bear markets are opportunities for the poor to turn their fortunes around

• Bought at $2 in 2011: 30,000x return (based on $60,000)

• Bought at $150 in 2015: 400x return

• Bought at $3,200 in 2018: 18.75x return

• Bought at $15,000 in 2022: 4x return

Every bear cycle is a redistribution of wealth: those chasing the high get shaken out; panic sellers at the bottom cede their chips; the ones who profit are those willing to build positions gradually during despair.

In 2018, at $3,200, some said “Bitcoin is dead”; in 2022, at $15,000, some shouted “Crypto is doomed”; in February 2026, when it fell below $60,000, the whole world asked, “Is this really different this time?”

If you believe history will repeat, now through the next 6-12 months is one of the few times to buy “future” at “relatively low prices.” Whether you believe it or not, it’s a choice.