The game at the end of the bear market: within the 15% fluctuation range, what are the smart money buying?

On February 12, 2026, the digital asset market exhibited a highly recognizable technical pattern. According to Gate market data, BTC traded within a narrow range between $65,984.7 and $68,000 over the past 24 hours; ETH repeatedly tested support around $1,990.

This is not panic after a sharp decline, nor is it the charging forward of a bull market. It is a more subtle, yet more noteworthy state—low-volatility squeeze at the end of a bear market.

DWF Labs explicitly stated yesterday: the market is in a consolidation phase at the end of a bear market, with an expected volatility range of about 15%. For traders skilled at reading order books, this implies: the large-scale liquidation wave has passed, leverage deleveraging is nearing completion, and major funds are quietly reallocating positions at current prices.

This article will analyze the underlying logic of this phase based on the latest Gate data as of February 12, 2026, and provide an operational framework aligned with the “15% box” model.

Why is this considered “the end of the bear market” rather than “a continuation of decline”?

Distinguishing these two concepts requires more than intuition; it depends on three dimensions of substantive change.

First, leverage structure has been significantly purified.

In January this year, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a massive outflow of $2.9 billion over 12 trading days, creating negative feedback from institutional selling and long squeezes. But since February, the funding rates in Gate’s futures market have remained close to zero, with a notable decline in high-leverage accounts. Once panic selling and forced liquidations exit the market, remaining positions are often “immovable stones”—seller momentum is marginally exhausted.

Second, key price levels show signs of institutional support.

Technical analysis often discusses support levels, but we need to differentiate between “retail memory support” and “institutional real support.” Observing Gate’s depth chart, BTC shows continuous 15-minute-level bullish divergence near $65,000, and stacked buy orders do not withdraw as price weakens. This is not short-term retail behavior but the strategic accumulation by allocators using low liquidity to slowly build positions.

Third, macro expectations have entered a “bad news digestion phase.”

UBS, in early February, issued a warning about ten “unexpected” risks for 2026, including the potential burst of the US stock bubble and US Treasury yields breaking 5%, which could suppress risk assets. But the fundamental rule of asset pricing is: when consensus expectations are fully priced in, marginal changes in weightings become more important. Currently, the market’s betting on the timing of rate cuts in 2026 has become more rational, and the US dollar index is no longer trending strongly in one direction, providing a breathing space for the crypto market.

Conclusion: This is not the end of the bear market, but it is indeed the end of the “most brutal phase.” The market is shifting from a “collapse mode” to a “consumption mode.”

Key levels on February 12: real-time data analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Current Gate Price: $68,000
• 24-hour change: +0.8%
• Short-term support: $65,000 (if broken, next buy zone is $63,000–$65,000)
• Short-term resistance: $68,600 (the dividing line between bulls and bears), a confirmed trend reversal requires a sustained move above $70,000

Ethereum (ETH)

• Current Gate Price: $1,990
• 24-hour performance: low touched $1,903, showing fatigue in rebound
• Key support: $1,900 (psychological level), if broken, test $1,850
• Key resistance: $2,000 (multiple rejections at this level)

Gate Token (GT)

• Current Gate Price: $7.1 (+3.8% in 24 hours)
• 7-day performance: +5.2%
• Current market rank: #88, circulating market cap approximately $770 million

From the market language, BTC remains stronger than ETH, and the divergence between mainstream and altcoins persists. Within the 15% volatility box, capital prefers high-liquidity assets rather than low-circulation small coins pre-positioned for early entry.

Survival rules within the consolidation zone: abandon “precise bottom fishing,” embrace “fuzzy correctness”

Many traders avoid losses in a bear market but lose big at the end. The reason is simple: attempting to leverage for the “last dip” or the “first rebound.”

For Gate users’ actual trading scenarios, here are three actionable strategies:

Strategy 1: DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging), but don’t “hold to death”

Gate supports: spot DCA strategies

Classic value investing advises “buy and hold” during bear markets, but for ordinary users, unrealized losses over an indefinite period can be psychologically taxing. A more pragmatic approach is: set $65,000 as a baseline, add to positions every time the price drops 3–5%, and reduce 20% of the added position each time it rebounds 8–10%.

This isn’t about catching swings but about lowering the average cost while maintaining psychological balance. Within the 15% box, repeatedly doing T (trading) often yields better results than holding through.

Strategy 2: Recognize the “like government bonds” value of platform tokens

Gate supports: GT staking / holding rebates

In bull markets, platform tokens tend to lag behind high-beta altcoins; but at the end of a bear market, their defensive properties and yield-generating capacity are re-priced. Currently, GT has fallen about 70% from its all-time high of $25.94, with a valuation below its historical average.

For funds seeking low-volatility returns, converting some stablecoins into GT and participating in Gate’s staking can yield annualized returns of 4%–12%. In the macro environment of declining yields in 2026, this is quite competitive.

Strategy 3: Distance yourself from “storytelling,” return to data

Gate supports: on-chain data tools

The end of a bear market is a period of narrative fatigue. Concepts like AI, RWA, DeFi are unlikely to generate independent rallies in a liquidity-starved environment. True alpha comes from on-chain activity revival, developer retention, and other fundamental data.

It is recommended that retail traders limit 80% of their holdings to liquid assets like BTC, ETH, GT, and only allocate the remaining 20% when clear signals of sector-wide volume surges appear.

What are institutions doing? A look at “counterintuitive” position management

Many users wonder: why are institutions still selling BTC when it drops to $65,000?

The fact is: institutional fund assessment cycles differ greatly from retail. Earlier this year, the large outflows from ETFs were partly due to macro hedge fund rebalancing across assets, not a lack of confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

A key signal is: even during large outflows, Coinbase’s premium index did not show persistent deep discounts, indicating that long-term institutional holdings in the US have not exited. This is fundamentally different from the indiscriminate selling during the FTX collapse in 2022.

For retail investors, mimicking institutional “left-side positioning” can be risky, but adopting their “bottom-line thinking” is prudent:

• Always keep 20%–40% in USD-based assets. This is not bearishness but a safeguard to buy the dip during black swan events.
• Keep leverage below 3x. In low-volatility environments, high leverage is unprofitable and can lead to liquidation on minor shocks.

Summary

Every bull-bear transition eliminates traders trying to “grab the last copper coin.”

The market in February 2026 does not belong to bulls or bears but to those who admit “I cannot predict the bottom” yet are willing to discipline themselves and sow seeds at this level.

In Gate’s depth chart, we see the presence of these funds—they don’t shout, don’t manipulate the market, only quietly place buy orders around $65,000.

This is not surrender; it is strategic positioning.