The 4 Defining Charts for Markets in 2025: Key Takeaways for Investors

There was no shortage of market storylines in 2025. Global and US markets shook off early volatility to end the year sharply higher, with major international markets unexpectedly leading the way. Bond yields remained attractive. The US dollar remained weak. Tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and inflation loomed throughout the year, but markets and economies largely didn’t blink. Even across the asset management industry, product development only ramped up.

Among dozens of developments, four stood out in 2025:

1. The US economy was resilient despite tariffs.
2. Bitcoin and gold traveled different paths.
3. International markets surged.
4. Exchange-traded funds once again owned the year.

As for 2026, there are two to keep an eye on:

1. Hyperscaler bonds tell a different story from their stocks.
2. Public company buyouts are growing more common.

We highlight those points below and offer more details on them and dozens of other developments in Morningstar’s Markets Observer. You can access the quarter’s report here.

Four Charts That Defined 2025

1) US Economy Resilient Despite Tariffs

The average US tariff rate stood at about 11% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the highest since the early 1940s. However, this isn’t as high as many feared in April 2025, as President Donald Trump backed off on some tariff hikes, and actual tariff collections have lagged announced rates owing to generous exemptions. A pending Supreme Court decision may further reduce tariffs, although the administration may partially circumvent the decision by citing the authority of other laws to hike tariffs. Despite tariff headwinds, the US economy grew by 2.1% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter.

		Tariffs at the Highest Level in 80 Years

Source: US Census Bureau, Morningstar. Data as of Dec. 31, 2025.

2) Bitcoin and Gold Diverged in 2025

Gold and bitcoin traveled different paths in 2025. With so much market uncertainty, safe-haven assets like gold surged. SPDR Gold Shares GLD gained 63.7% last year, iShares Silver Trust SLV even jumped 144.7%, marking a stunning resurgence for that precious metal. Bitcoin also climbed to record highs before falling in the fourth quarter. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF IBIT ended 2025 down 6.4% following a roller-coaster year for the cryptocurrency.

		Gold and House Prices Near Records, Bitcoin Retreats

Source: Morningstar Direct, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, National Association of Realtors, Macrobond. Minimums and Maximums for the period Jan. 1, 2006, to Dec. 31, 2025.

3) International Markets Surged in 2025

Before 2025, US stocks dominated the game. The Morningstar US Market Index’s 14% annualized gain from 2020 through 2024 trounced those of most international markets. The tides turned in 2025. The Morningstar US Market Index rose a strong 17.4% last year, but that paled in comparison to many major emerging and developed international markets. As a whole, developed international markets gained 32.2% for the year. Emerging-market stocks gained 29.8%, led by Latin America’s 52.3% one-year jump. A relatively weak US dollar contributed to these stellar returns.

		Global Stocks Led the Way

Source: Morningstar Country and Region Indexes. Data as Dec. 31, 2025.

4) ETFs Once Again Owned 2025

ETFs continued to rewrite the record books in 2025. They amassed more than $13 trillion in assets by year-end, with inflows eclipsing $1 trillion for the second year in a row. In contrast, mutual funds bled nearly $700 billion last year. In keeping with these trends, asset managers have been more than willing to create new ETFs and reluctant to launch new mutual funds. In total, 860 more ETFs were launched than were closed in 2025, while mutual funds saw 266 more closures than launches.

		ETF Product Development Ramped Up

Source: Morningstar Direct. Data as of Dec. 31, 2025.

Read: 6 ETF Investing Predictions for 2026

Two Charts to Watch in 2026

1) Watch Hyperscaler Bonds

Hyperscalers—large tech firms, like Amazon.com AMZN and Google GOOG, that operate global cloud platforms and digital infrastructure—have aggressively increased borrowing in the investment-grade bond market since September 2025 to fund artificial intelligence investments. The scale and pace of this borrowing have raised concerns among bond investors, leading bondholders to demand much more compensation for owning this debt.

		Appetite for Hyperscaler Debt is Waning

Source: Morningstar. Data as of Dec. 31, 2025. OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread) measures the additional yield investors require to compensate for the credit risk of holding a bond. The Hyperscalers sub-index includes investment-grade corporate bonds issued by Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle within the Morningstar Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index.

2) Largest Ever Public Stock Buyout Expected Soon

Private equity firms are increasingly taking public companies private and are spending billions each year to do so. The trend continued in 2025 with 39 US companies taken private at a median valuation of nearly $1.9 billion. Larger stocks are being taken out of public markets, too, as buyout funds look to deploy ample capital. Electronic Arts EA is expected to be the largest ever public stock buyout when the deal completes in 2026.

		Public Companies Are Increasingly Being Taken Private

Source: PitchBook. Data as of Dec. 31, 2025. Includes only completed deals during each calendar year for US companies.

Read: 3 Ways Private Companies are Reshaping Public Markets

All charts are derived from the Q1 2026 Morningstar Markets Observer. The report summarizes key market trends from the prior quarter and is written by several members of Morningstar’s research and investment teams. The full report can be accessed for free by clicking this link.

Vedran Beogradlija, Preston Caldwell, Hong Cheng, Sbidag Demerjian, and Sean Murphy contributed to this article.