Gold Price: Forecast Until 2030 Based on Technical and Fundamental Analysis

The direction of gold prices in the coming years remains a decisive question for investors and analysts. Research indicates that the gold rate shows prospects for sustainable growth, and forecasts from leading financial institutions often converge around certain price levels. Let’s examine the facts underpinning these expectations and why the gold forecast for 2025 reached $3,100, with potential to approach $3,900 by 2026.

Gold Price Targets: Base Scenario

Analysis of long-term trends shows that the gold price should follow a specific trajectory this decade. It is expected that the maximum gold price in 2026 will be around $3,800–$3,900, gradually approaching $5,000 by 2030. Historical data confirms that such forecasts are based not on speculation but on analysis of long-term market patterns.

The scenario remains bullish provided that the gold price does not fall below the critical level of $1,770. This support level is strategically important for maintaining the upward trend. Future movement of gold will depend on whether this threshold is maintained.

Technical Analysis: Long-Term Charts Tell a Story

The basis of the gold forecast lies in analyzing 50-year and 20-year charts. The 50-year chart reveals two key bullish reversals: the descending wedge of the 1980s–1990s and the formation of a “cup with handle” pattern during 2013–2023. These long-term patterns are significant — the longer the consolidation, the more powerful the subsequent move. The completion of a 10-year reversal signals the start of a new sustainable bull cycle.

On the 20-year chart, a beautiful “cup with handle” formation is visible, developed over a decade. Historical experience shows that such patterns often trigger multi-stage bull markets. Market history does not repeat exactly but often rhymes — similar scenarios unfold in new contexts.

Importantly, in 2024, gold began setting new historical highs simultaneously in all major currencies, not just in US dollars. This global movement started in early 2024 and serves as a final confirmation of the international nature of the bullish trend.

What Drives Gold Prices: Inflation Expectations as a Key Factor

Forecasting gold prices is impossible without understanding its main fundamental driver — inflation expectations. Contrary to popular belief, supply and demand, recessions, and economic prospects play a secondary role. Gold performs brilliantly precisely in conditions of inflation and its expectations.

Inflation expectations are tracked via TIP ETF (an investment fund based on inflation-protected securities). Historically, gold and TIP ETF show a stable positive correlation. Rare divergences are short-lived and quickly corrected.

The M2 money supply and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are steadily rising, supporting a gentle upward trend. It is expected that in the coming years, CPI will grow in sync with gold prices, facilitating a gradual and balanced increase in the gold rate. This provides a basis for a medium-term growth forecast for 2025–2026.

Interestingly, gold is closely linked not only to inflation expectations but also to the S&P 500 index. This means that the assertion of gold thriving during a recession is incorrect — gold follows investment opportunities and liquidity conditions.

Leading Indicators: Currency Markets and Long-Term Bond Charts

The gold price forecast can be refined by studying leading indicators. Key among them are currency pairs and long-term bond markets.

The euro (EURUSD) shows a constructive long-term chart. Gold tends to rise when the euro strengthens and faces pressure when the US dollar appreciates. The current euro position creates a favorable environment for gold. The long-term dollar pair chart appears quite strong, promising support for the upward trend of the precious metal.

US Treasury bonds also serve as a guide. Bond yields and gold prices are inversely related — when yields decline, gold rises. After yields peaked in mid-2023, a period of declining interest rates globally began. It is expected that yields will not rise sharply, supporting the gold price. The long-term Treasury bond chart looks very optimistic, creating favorable conditions for price growth.

COMEX Futures Market Signals: How Extended Is the Market?

Another leading indicator is positioning in the COMEX gold futures market. Analysts examine net short positions of commercial traders. When these positions are low, gold cannot be significantly suppressed. Conversely, when positions are highly stretched, the growth potential is limited.

Currently, net short positions remain very high. This suggests the market is “extended” to some degree, but combined with other leading indicators and fundamental drivers, a mild upward trend is possible. This indicates that the gold price growth forecast remains valid, though the rise may be gradual rather than explosive.

Consensus Forecast: What Major Financial Institutions Expect

The gold price forecast for 2025 from leading global banks shows a notable convergence around the $2,700–$2,800 range:

Goldman Sachs anticipated reaching $2,700 by early 2025, based on the metal’s resilience amid unstable financial conditions.

UBS and BofA also projected around $2,700, reflecting consensus near this level.

J.P. Morgan forecasted a range from $2,775 to $2,850, implying moderate growth.

Citi Research provided a baseline of $2,875, with expectations between $2,800 and $3,000.

ANZ was more optimistic, setting a target of $2,805 by the end of 2025.

Bloomberg predicted a broad range from $1,709 to $2,727, reflecting uncertainty amid unpredictable inflation and geopolitical tensions.

The forecast from InvestingHaven was more bullish — about $3,100 in 2025. This divergence reflects a more aggressive outlook based on leading indicators and inflation expectations. Historically, this research group has been accurate in its forecasts for five consecutive years.

Silver as Part of the Strategy: Parallel Growth at the Cycle’s End

No noble metals market forecast is complete without considering silver. Historically, silver is more volatile than gold, but in late stages of a bullish gold cycle, it accelerates sharply.

Analysis of the 50-year gold-to-silver ratio shows that silver tends to explode in price when the bullish gold market enters its final phase. The current positioning suggests a target of $50 per ounce as a natural level. A strong “cup with handle” pattern on the 50-year silver chart could become aggressive in 2024–2025.

Gold Price Forecast: Complete Target Level Table

It’s noteworthy that the 2024 forecast of $2,555 was reached by August of that year, confirming the validity of the analysis methodology. Forecasts remain valid as long as the gold price does not fall below $1,770.

Key Questions About Gold’s Future

What will be the gold price in 2030?

The peak target price before 2030 is $5,000 per ounce under normal market conditions. This psychologically significant level could mark the cycle’s peak.

Could gold reach $10,000?

While $10,000 is not unthinkable, it would require extreme conditions. Possible scenarios include runaway inflation (as in the 1970s) or acute geopolitical tensions causing widespread fear. Under normal circumstances, the probability is low.

Which gold forecast is more reliable: conservative or aggressive?

Many years of research from InvestingHaven have demonstrated high accuracy. The analysis is based on a 15-year methodology tested through market cycles. The only significant deviation was the forecast for 2021. Overall, the long-term forecast based on technical patterns and fundamental drivers provides a reliable foundation for investment decisions.