【$AR Signal】No Position | Weak rebound in a downtrend, main force not entering

$AR Shows a weak rebound in a long-term downtrend. Although the price is rising, open interest (OI) remains stable, and funding rates are negative, indicating this is a short covering rebound driven by short sellers, not main force long positions. The 4H buy volume ratio remains below 0.5, indicating weak active buying. The current price is near the EMA20 (1.8636), facing a key resistance test.

🎯 Direction: No Position (NoPosition)

Logical core: The current rebound lacks a core driver. 1) Price action: rebound volume is average, the latest 4H candlestick buy volume ratio is only 0.41, showing weak active buying. 2) Derivatives data: funding rate is negative (-0.0137%), but OI trend remains stable, with no significant increase in OI accompanying price rise, ruling out the possibility of main force long entry, and more consistent with short covering (short squeeze). 3) Technical level: price is testing EMA20 dynamic resistance and is within a long-term downtrend channel. RSI (48.22) is in a neutral to weak zone, with no overbought signals, indicating a lack of momentum for shorting.

Overall judgment: This is a technical rebound within a downtrend, with no indication of main force bullish intent. Before the price stabilizes above EMA20 and OI significantly increases, there are no high-probability long setups. Additionally, with negative funding rates and no RSI divergence, shorting carries high risk. The best strategy is to stay in cash and wait for clearer supply and demand signals.

Trade here: 👇 $AR

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