The $25 Bitcoin Cycle Game: The Next Stop After Breaking Below $76,000

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $67.91K, precisely in a critical zone between the previous cycle’s bottom at $30K and the current resistance level at $80K. History shows us that extreme lows like $25K, while seemingly distant now, are actually the best reference points for understanding cycle patterns. The most important lesson is: don’t fight the cycle. There is no such thing as a super cycle; each market phase will have several recognized “big players” sacrificed along the way.

Last cycle’s $30K bottom vs. current $80K resistance

Looking back at the bear market bottom in May 2022, $30K was seen as the super cycle’s bottom because it was the jump-off point after the 2021 $519K crash, and it also served as the weekly MA120 support at the time. The most vivid memory is that when the price broke below $30K, the fear index had already fallen below 10, and a large amount of bottom-fishing capital believed the market had bottomed out or was about to rebound. But history proves that such moments are often just the beginning.

Now, in February 2026, $80K is playing a similar role — transforming from a former strong support into a major weekly MA120 resistance level. More notably, $80K is also the breakeven cost line for most Bitcoin mining companies. The current situation at $76K resembles the brief rebound after breaking below $30K back then; the market is likely to need another deep capitulation to shatter confidence completely and hit a bottom.

When the fear index hits bottom, the main players’ deep squat has just begun

An extreme low in the fear index (close to 10) is usually seen as the most panic-stricken moment, with retail investors already despairing. But this is precisely when the main players take advantage of the despair to perform their final deep squat. Emotional indicators can be highly distorted during extreme market conditions and should not be the primary basis for trading decisions. The truly reliable indicator remains trend lines: as long as the price stays below the weekly MA120, all upward movements are just rebounds, not reversals. The extreme lows like $25K are unlikely to be repeated.

$70,000 is the real trigger point for massive volume

Currently, Bitcoin keeps making new lows, and referencing the previous cycle’s pattern, the move from $26,700 with increased volume to a rebound was about 20%, ultimately reaching $32,399. Based on the current situation, only a drop below $70K would trigger a volume spike capable of shaking the market. At that point, the expected rebound target would be above the weekly MA120, around $80K, with an anticipated rise of about 15%.

If the price continues downward and hits $69K (the previous high), it could trigger a chain reaction of large stop-loss orders and panic selling, potentially surpassing the massive volume bar seen in November 2025. Without extreme panic and a total collapse, rebounds are often just traps set by the main players to lure in traders.

Cycle forecast: bottoming out between November and December

Based on cycle patterns, Bitcoin is expected to bottom out between November and December. The question for market participants is: what will the price be at that time? $70K? $60K? Or even lower? This depends not only on market sentiment but also on whether enough stop-loss and panic-selling orders are fully activated. Cycles do not change direction based on anyone’s expectations, but those who understand cycle patterns can often find certainty within the full cycle from $25K to $800K.