Reuters survey on February 12 shows that long-term U.S. Treasury yields will remain stable in the short term, but concerns about inflation and the independence of Federal Reserve decisions may lead to an upward move later in the year; short-term yields have slightly decreased due to bets on rate cuts. The survey also indicates that nearly 60% of bond strategists believe that the massive issuance of government bonds over the next few years to finance Trump's tax cuts and spending plans is unfavorable for the $6.6 trillion asset-liability reduction. Another Reuters survey points out that the Federal Reserve expects to cut rates twice later this year, with the first in June when Jerome Powell takes over as Fed Chair. The rate-sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to fall from 3.50% to 3.45% by the end of April and 3.38% by the end of July, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is forecasted to rise to 4.29% in one year, up from the previous month's projection of 4.20%.
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Reuters survey on February 12 shows that long-term U.S. Treasury yields will remain stable in the short term, but concerns about inflation and the independence of Federal Reserve decisions may lead to an upward move later in the year; short-term yields have slightly decreased due to bets on rate cuts. The survey also indicates that nearly 60% of bond strategists believe that the massive issuance of government bonds over the next few years to finance Trump's tax cuts and spending plans is unfavorable for the $6.6 trillion asset-liability reduction. Another Reuters survey points out that the Federal Reserve expects to cut rates twice later this year, with the first in June when Jerome Powell takes over as Fed Chair. The rate-sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to fall from 3.50% to 3.45% by the end of April and 3.38% by the end of July, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is forecasted to rise to 4.29% in one year, up from the previous month's projection of 4.20%.