UBS: Expected demand for humanoid robots to reach 30,000 units by 2026, with significant volume possibly in 2027–2028

UBS’s latest report indicates that humanoid robots are accelerating from concept validation toward industrial applications, with global demand expected to reach 30,000 units by 2026.

In a report released this week, analyst Phyllis Wang stated that as robots gradually acquire “brains,” their ability to perform repetitive tasks in factory workshops and warehouses has significantly improved. Although only a few robots are capable of autonomously completing simple tasks in industrial scenarios this year, the growth momentum has been initially established.

The report further points out that if breakthroughs are achieved in industrial on-site applications, there is significant upside potential for demand forecasts in 2027 and 2028. Leading manufacturers have begun capacity expansion plans, with Tesla planning to build a production line with an annual output of 1 million Optimus robots, expected to be operational by the end of 2026.

UBS believes that although the level of robot intelligence still lags behind customer expectations, manufacturers’ capacity expansion plans have already demonstrated clear confidence in market prospects.

Chinese companies dominate Tesla leads capacity expansion

UBS statistics show that by 2025, global humanoid robot shipments are approximately 18,600 units, with Chinese companies holding a dominant share. Among them, Unitree and AgiBot each shipped about 5,000 units, together contributing nearly 10,000 units, accounting for over half of the global total, indicating that Chinese companies have established a first-mover advantage in commercialization.

In terms of capacity expansion, Tesla’s plans are the most aggressive, aiming to build a production line with an annual output of 1 million Optimus robots, expected to be operational by the end of 2026. UBTECH plans to achieve a capacity of 10,000 units this year, while Boston Dynamics expects to establish an annual capacity of 30,000 Atlas robots by 2028. These layouts indicate that, despite products still being in iteration, leading manufacturers are positioning themselves early for large-scale applications.

Peak growth expected in 2027-2028

UBS maintains its baseline forecast of 30,000 units for global humanoid robot demand in 2026 but also highlights upside risks. If AI technology accelerates development or customer feedback actively promotes adoption, demand could reach 35,000 units in an optimistic scenario, with extreme cases possibly reaching 40,000 units.

Phyllis Wang emphasized that once substantial breakthroughs are achieved in industrial applications, demand forecasts for 2027 and 2028 will face significant upward revision, and actual shipment volumes are expected to be released predominantly during this period.

From application scenarios, humanoid robots are extending from industrial fields such as factory workshops and warehouses to broader contexts. Currently mainly performing repetitive tasks, their functional boundaries are expected to expand continuously as AI capabilities evolve.

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