Bitcoin 72K - Investor's Intuition: Where to Buy When the Bear Cycle Accelerates?

History shows us that each Bitcoin market cycle follows a certain pattern. But this time, something unusual is happening – the decline is happening faster than usual, 1.25 times the speed of previous cycles. When intuition combines with structural analysis, investors are beginning to realize that the market may be entering a new phase.

Bitcoin Market Cycle: Unusually Rapid Decline

According to the 365-day model, a bear market typically lasts about a year, and we are currently only about one-third of the way through. The difference this time isn’t in the duration but in the speed. Bitcoin peaked in October, earlier than previous cycles, so reaching the bottom early is also more understandable.

As demand from institutional investors increases, they will absorb selling pressure from miners and large holders. This shift in balance gradually diminishes Bitcoin’s explosive nature as an unconventional asset, making it behave more like a traditional risk asset, similar to the S&P 500 cycle.

Buy Scenario: Forecasting Market Bottom in Q3

Based on the decline analysis, we are approximately 22-30% away from the bear market bottom. Historically, smart investors tend to build trading positions when declines are between -40% and -60%. However, this cycle’s intuition and structural data suggest it could be different.

According to the 365-day model, about 200 days remain until the official bottom. Based on that, the market bottom is expected to form in Q3, not Q4 as some anticipated with a -70% drop. There are two possible scenarios: one is a slow, sideways decline with gradual selling pressure, and the other is a faster sell-off that ends the down cycle early. Sharp-eyed investors might bet that the bottom will arrive sooner than expected.

Expected Decline and Optimal Entry Points

Currently, the projected decline from peak to bottom is around 22-30%. Compared to previous cycles with declines of -40% to -60%, this isn’t too severe. The ideal entry points will be at lower price levels, where selling pressure from miners and large investors is absorbed by institutional capital.

Buy Entry Plan: From 69K to 45K

Currently, BTC is trading around $66.91K, up +0.78% in 24 hours. The suggested buy zones include key levels: 69K, 65K, 60K, 55K, 50K, 45K. Each of these levels could serve as accumulation points for diligent investors, especially from June to August when the bottom is forecasted to appear.

Don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened. The opportunity for intuitive investors lies in the coming months, as the bear cycle accelerates and prices gradually reach the bottom.