Weekly OTC Trading Report (1/30 - 2/12): Bitcoin Faces Multi-Layer Pressure as Risk Sentiment Shifts

The past two weeks have presented a complex landscape for over-the-counter traders. While precious metals achieved consecutive all-time highs, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market absorbed mounting headwinds from multiple directions—corporate earnings, geopolitical tensions, and accelerating liquidations. This weekly OTC analysis explores how risk-off sentiment reshaped positioning across asset classes.

Thursday’s Market Shock: Microsoft, Geopolitics & The Crypto Cascade

Late January brought a confluence of catalysts that simultaneously lifted some assets while crushing others. Microsoft’s post-earnings decline of approximately 10% on Thursday—despite beating consensus on revenue and EPS—sparked a broader selloff in AI-related equities. The culprit: investor concerns over elevated capital expenditure guidance and uncertain AI investment returns. Meta proved a notable exception, managing relative resilience.

Concurrently, escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions triggered a classic flight-to-safety trade. Oil surged, while gold briefly touched $5,600 and silver exceeded $120—both reminiscent of crypto volatility. Yet these euphoric moves proved short-lived. Both precious metals retraced 8-10% in subsequent sessions, adding to the broader market pressure that weighed on crypto positioning across OTC desks.

Bitcoin and the wider digital asset ecosystem bore the brunt of these crosscurrents. The $84,000 support level—previously highlighted as critical—was decisively broken, opening downside risk toward $80,000 and even the April 2025 low of $74,600. Current price action shows BTC trading near $66,000 (as of mid-February), representing a 30-day decline of -30.05%. The inability to quickly recover from these breakdowns signals sustained OTC selling pressure.

Bitcoin’s Technical Breakdown: Support Levels Break as Liquidations Accelerate

The technical picture has deteriorated notably. Since mid-November, Bitcoin repeatedly tested the lower bound of its established channel following its retreat below the $100,000 psychological threshold. While these tests occasionally generated short-term bounces, they consistently failed to catalyze sustained reversals. The recent breakdown through $84,000 represents a material deterioration of that trading pattern.

Long liquidations have been accelerating, with BTC exhibiting markedly elevated correlation to US technology equities during risk-off periods. This correlation dynamic represents a structural shift for crypto traders accustomed to viewing Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier. Adding to these pressures, crypto ETF outflows have persisted, reflecting a pronounced rotation toward AI-focused investments rather than digital assets.

An often-overlooked development: several Bitcoin miners are actively repurposing infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing workloads. This capital and narrative reallocation is reflected in a 4%+ decline in mining difficulty over the past 30 days—the first meaningful erosion in this metric in months. For OTC traders monitoring on-chain dynamics, this signals a temporary shift in mining capital allocation away from cryptocurrency.

The Precious Metals Anomaly: Why Gold Surges While Crypto Stalls

The divergence between precious metals and Bitcoin deserves closer examination. Gold and silver have delivered exceptional returns over the past two months, achieving consecutive all-time highs with volatility patterns reminiscent of crypto assets. Yet this bullish sentiment and FOMO-driven momentum has not extended to Bitcoin—despite its frequent characterization as “digital gold.”

The explanation lies partly in macro headwinds specific to crypto: President Trump’s tariff announcements targeting EU and Canadian trading partners have weighed on risk sentiment broadly, with Bitcoin proving particularly sensitive to such macro shifts. Meanwhile, traditional safe-haven flows have favored physical commodities over digital alternatives, suggesting OTC players remain segmented in their hedging preferences.

Trading Perspectives: Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Structural Tailwinds

Near-Term Challenges

Current conditions present formidable obstacles for bullish positioning. Long liquidations are accelerating the selloff, while the correlation between BTC and US equities suggests further downside risk if tech stocks continue to decline. Sustained crypto ETF outflows underscore a meaningful rotation away from digital assets, at least temporarily. For weekly OTC traders, the near-term bias remains cautious, with technical support levels now being tested in earnest.

Long-Term Constructive View

Despite near-term turbulence, several structural tailwinds support a longer-term optimistic stance. Improving global liquidity conditions should eventually restore capital inflows to crypto. Innovative applications across PayFi and Real-World Assets continue gaining traction among institutional participants. Potential spillover from precious metals momentum—as dollar weakness persists—could eventually benefit Bitcoin. Most importantly, meaningful progress on regulatory frameworks in the US and internationally is reducing policy uncertainty, a key factor that has deterred OTC participation historically.

These tailwinds suggest that current weakness represents a temporary cyclical dislocation rather than a structural breakdown in crypto demand.

Macro Week Recap: Economic Resilience Amid Policy Steadiness

The week of January 22-28, 2026 revealed a complex macro backdrop:

US Economic Data - GDP expanded 4.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, exceeding consensus estimates of 4.3% and accelerating from Q2’s 3.8% growth. Initial jobless claims totaled 200,000, below the 209,000 forecast, while continuing claims declined to 1,849,000 from 1,875,000—signaling labor market resilience following the Federal Reserve’s recent rate reduction. PCE inflation registered 2.8% year-over-year in November, meeting expectations.

Japan & Global Developments - Japan’s national core CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in December, moderating from November’s 3.0%. The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.75% and revised its FY2025 growth forecast upward to 0.9% from 0.7%, with FY2026 guidance lifted to 1.0% from 0.7%. US durable goods orders accelerated 5.3% month-over-month in November, surpassing the 3.1% forecast.

Policy Decisions & Sentiment Shifts - Consumer confidence declined meaningfully, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index falling to 84.5 in January from 94.2 in December, undershooting the 90.6 estimate. Both the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve held policy rates steady at 2.25% and 3.75%, respectively. Notably, Fed Chair Powell refrained from providing specific forward guidance on the rate path, avoided commentary on USD volatility, and declined to address administration-related matters—a posture that left markets parsing policy intentions through economic data rather than official communication.

This macro landscape—solid growth, moderating but persistent inflation, and policy uncertainty—has reinforced the risk-off sentiment that weighed on crypto throughout the weekly period.