What the 2026 earnings of the seven major U.S. stocks mean for the crypto market's liquidity crunch

U.S. Stock “Mag 7” (NVIDIA, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla) Earnings Season Fully Underway in Early 2026. Many investors still do not realize that the earnings results of these tech giants are not just individual company reports but serve as “litmus tests” that influence the overall liquidity of the cryptocurrency market. When their performance falls short of expectations, the chain reaction of liquidity drying up can become more severe than anticipated.

The Source of Liquidity: Why U.S. Earnings Reports Shake the Crypto Market

At first glance, U.S. earnings reports and the cryptocurrency market seem unrelated, but they are actually closely connected. As of February 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $65.79K (-3.07% in 24 hours), and Ethereum (ETH) is at $1.92K (-2.54%), indicating a slight correction phase.

This price movement is driven by the global institutional investors’ risk appetite index (Risk-on Index). According to analyses by Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, when the “Big 7” U.S. tech giants report strong earnings:

• Investor confidence rapidly recovers
• Appetite for risk assets increases
• Institutional investors allocate funds to emerging markets and high-growth stocks
• Some of these funds flow into the cryptocurrency market

Conversely, if these tech giants underperform, the resulting liquidity crunch means rapid withdrawal of institutional funds, causing the crypto market’s “water” to dry up all at once.

Early 2026 Earnings Forecast: Signs of Slowing Growth

NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) continue to benefit from AI investments, with strong demand for data center GPUs and cloud infrastructure. Their earnings are expected to meet market expectations.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) are showing signs of fatigue. Apple is waiting for next-generation device innovations, and Tesla is caught between autonomous driving tech and the spread of low-cost models.

A key point is the overall slowdown in growth rates. While investors in 2025 had become accustomed to doubling growth, the projected average profit growth rate for the Big 7 in Q1 2026 is about 11.2%. This gap could lead to a mismatch with market expectations.

Chain Reaction When Liquidity Drys Up: “No Eggs Without a Nest”

What happens if the U.S. tech giants underperform expectations?

Institutional investors cut spending and withdraw from risk assets. The cryptocurrency market is the first to be affected because “cryptos are perceived as a collection of high-growth stocks.” Liquidity drying up means not just falling prices but also difficulty executing trades.

Even mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will see wider spreads and increased slippage if liquidity declines. Altcoins will face severe liquidity crises.

Macro-Economic Diversification: Potential Inflows to Alternative Assets

On the bright side, recent analyses by Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch suggest a shift in 2026 from “market concentration” to “multi-polarization.”

Growth rates of other S&P 500 components (excluding the Big 7, about 493 companies) are catching up, indicating that macroeconomic resilience remains strong. The era where AI industries solely drove economic growth is ending, and a broad range of sectors are now benefiting.

This wave of diversification could also favor the cryptocurrency market. When funds are no longer concentrated solely in Bitcoin and Ethereum, real growth opportunities may emerge in altcoins and secondary market tokens.

How to Distinguish AI-Related Stocks: The Line Between Reality and Bubble

Last year, after NVIDIA’s strong earnings, AI concept stocks in crypto (Render, Fetch.ai, etc.) doubled directly. This year, while NVIDIA’s stock continues to rise, the market’s “calmness” has become more noticeable.

This is a crucial turning point. Caution toward speculative “concept stocks” is increasing, and only projects supporting actual computational power and infrastructure are now seen as having long-term investment value.

Institutional Investor Trends and Capital Inflows: The Significance of Buyback Programs

Some of the Big 7 are expanding their share buyback programs. This is akin to injecting “water” into the market. Increased capital flow makes it easier for the crypto market’s “ship” to stay afloat.

Conversely, reductions or suspensions of buyback programs signal decreased overall market liquidity.

Three Pitfalls for Active Investors to Avoid

1. Fully Leveraged Trading Just Before Earnings Announcements
Even if earnings meet expectations, a gap with market expectations can trigger institutional sell-offs. Volatility in early 2026 will be high.

2. Misjudging the “Quality” of Liquidity
High trading volume does not necessarily mean sufficient liquidity. Confirm spreads and slippage data, and understand the actual trading environment.

3. Losing Sight of the U.S. Tech Sector
The assumption that Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue rising depends on the stability of the U.S. tech sector. Make it a habit to monitor NASDAQ movements regularly.

Investment Strategy for 2026: Watching Liquidity

The major trend in 2026 will include “stability with volatility.” The earnings reports of the Big 7 will serve as indicators of market turning points, and fluctuations in liquidity will be the biggest risk factor for the crypto market.

As long as U.S. tech giants remain strong, the crypto market will retain its basic support. However, the looming crisis of liquidity drying up must always be kept in mind. Paying attention to macroeconomic indicators and institutional investor movements, not just charts, will be key to success in 2026.