Nuclear Deal or Not? Iran, the U.S., and a Decisive Moment for the Middle East

The focus of global politics is on the hotline between Tehran and Washington. According to reports from Haaretz and regional analytical sources, a major proposal is on the table—a potential deal that could rewrite the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The question is not just whether this deal will be struck, but also what consequences it will have for the region if successful or if it fails.

Conditional Deal on the Table: What Washington Offers

According to official information, Washington proposes a plan to Tehran aimed at preventing military operations. The essence of the deal is simple but revolutionary: Iran must suspend its active nuclear program and remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium from its territory. In exchange, the U.S. is ready to guarantee security and prevent military intervention.

This move would allow Iran to significantly delay the so-called “breakout point”—the moment when the country would have enough material to develop nuclear weapons—for months, if not years. For Tehran, this means gaining time for negotiations without the risk of being subjected to a military strike.

440 kg of Uranium and Turkey’s Role: How the U.S. Outplays Russia in Mediation

The transfer of 440 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium becomes a central element of the deal. Traditionally, Russia has played the role of guarantor and mediator in such operations, but sources indicate an unexpected turn: the U.S. administration is considering Turkey as a more reliable “neutral” partner for 2026.

This choice makes sense for several reasons. Turkey is geographically situated between Europe and the Middle East, holds a strategic position within NATO, and remains less dependent on Russian influence compared to previous years. For Washington, this means having a guarantor they can trust to fulfill the terms of the deal.

Tehran officially tries to maintain the position of the surprised party. High-ranking officials deny the existence of a final agreement and say that negotiations are still at an early stage. The question remains open: is this Iran’s genuine stance, or is it a tactical move to strengthen its negotiating position?

Timeline for Negotiations: The Peak Moment at the Istanbul Summit

The timeline of the deal is concise and firm. The upcoming meeting at the Istanbul Summit this Friday could be a turning point. If both sides reach an agreement, the world will see the most significant easing of tensions in the last decade. The geopolitical consequences will be enormous: regional security, energy flows, the position of European partners—all will be reassessed.

If negotiations fail, the consequences could be the opposite. The absence of an agreement would mean maintaining the status quo of tension and the possibility of large-scale military confrontation. In this scenario, just the presence at the peak of escalation will force both sides to act.

That is why the question “deal or no deal?” remains one of the most critical in global geopolitics in February 2026. The answer will be given very soon.