Kalshi trading volume continues to hit new highs. What is a reasonable pre-market stock price?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)

During market downturns, prediction markets have become the most eye-catching sector in the crypto space. In early February, during a market crash, BTC and ETH once fell over 10%, but trading activity in prediction markets remained vigorous, with weekly transaction counts reaching 26.39 million, a record high. Meanwhile, as the largest compliant prediction market platform in the U.S., Kalshi also surged to the top of the sector in January this year with over $9.5 billion in trading volume, setting a monthly transaction record. This was followed by a new round of market pricing for Kalshi’s pre-market stock price.

Today’s question is—what should be the reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi, which is expected to become the “first prediction market stock”?

Overview of existing tokenized trading platform pricing: PreStocks, Jarsy

As of writing, there is a clear price discrepancy between two major tokenized trading platforms for Kalshi’s pre-market stock price:

On PreStocks, Kalshi’s pre-market stock price includes two prices—

One is the implied market capitalization (market liquidity pricing level), with a per-share price of about $369;

The other is the capital market valuation (current financing valuation level), with a per-share price of about $364.

On Jarsy, Kalshi’s pre-market per-share price has already risen to about $504.

It’s worth noting that compared to our previous article “Kalshi Pre-market Stock Price Surging, Is It Still a Good Time to Buy?” the pre-market prices on both platforms have experienced some fluctuation. At that time, the prices were as follows:

• On PreStocks, Kalshi’s implied market cap was about $14 billion, with a per-share price of approximately $407;

• On Jarsy, Kalshi’s market valuation was $11 billion, with a per-share price of about $450.

In other words, PreStocks’ price has dropped from $407 to about $369; Jarsy’s price has risen from $450 to about $504.

For comparison, the pre-market stock prices in traditional financial markets for Kalshi have also changed—

• On Nasdaq Private Market, Kalshi’s per-share price has increased from around $307 to about $320;

• On Hiive, Kalshi’s per-share price has risen from about $357 to approximately $358.

Reasonable pre-market price range for Kalshi stock: approximately $320–$423

Last year, Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series E funding round, with a valuation of $11 billion.

Based on the above-mentioned market cap and corresponding stock prices, the total number of Kalshi shares is approximately 30.72 million to 34.3 million.

Specifically, the calculation methods are as follows—

Using a $11 billion market cap with traditional pre-market prices of $320 and $358, the number of Kalshi shares is approximately 30.72 million to 34.37 million;

Using implied market cap / tokenized stock price and capital market valuation / stock calibration price from PreStocks, the share count is about 34.27 million to 34.30 million;

Using the per-share pre-market purchase price from Jarsy, with a maximum market cap of $18.665 billion and a per-share price of $604.84, the share count is about 30.86 million.

Based on this information, we can make the following deductions:

First, with a valuation of $11 billion, the reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi is approximately $320–$358, meaning that current prices on platforms like PreStocks and Jarsy are relatively high compared to traditional tokenized trading platforms.

Second, Kalshi’s trading volume in January reached $9.5 billion, close to the overall prediction market size of about $10 billion in October last year. At that time, Kalshi’s market share was roughly 50% of the prediction market. Based on this, Kalshi’s current capital market valuation is at least over $15 billion.

Third, based on a $15 billion valuation and the data on Kalshi’s share count, the pre-market stock price range is approximately $436–$488.

Therefore, if Kalshi’s share count aligns with expectations and assuming a $15 billion implied market cap, a conservative estimate for the pre-market stock price range is $320–$378 (calculated as the average of the lowest price in the range). An optimistic estimate would be $358–$423 (average of the highest price in the range).

Based on these data, Jarsy’s platform appears to have overestimated Kalshi’s pre-market price, while PreStocks presents some arbitrage opportunities.

Additionally, the latest tokenized trading platform Tessera plans to open equity public offerings in the future, which readers can consider as an alternative (invitation code here).

Referring to previous Odaily Planet Daily article “Data Calculation: Polymarket’s Annual Revenue Exceeds One Billion Is Not Difficult, Provided That…”:

Based on the trading volume and fee ratio of the “15-minute cryptocurrency rise and fall” market on Polymarket, a static estimate suggests that, under current trading volume and structure, if Polymarket introduces similar fee models across all markets, it could generate annual revenue of $418 million.

As a prediction market platform with larger trading volume and higher fees, and considering the upcoming sports event year in 2026, Kalshi’s annual revenue is expected to surpass the estimated revenue of Polymarket. Consequently, the future capital market may further elevate Kalshi’s pre-market stock price.