Trading volume hits new highs again. Why is Kalshi's pre-market stock price caught in a rollercoaster?

Author: Wenser

Original Title: Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Hit New Highs, What Is a Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

During market downturns, prediction markets have become the most prominent sector in the crypto space. In early February, during a market crash, BTC and ETH once fell over 10%, yet trading activity in prediction markets remained vigorous, with weekly transaction counts reaching as high as 26.39 million, setting a new record. Meanwhile, as the largest compliant prediction market platform in the US, Kalshi also surged to the top of the sector in January this year with over $9.5 billion in trading volume, hitting a monthly record high. This has led to a new round of market pricing for Kalshi’s pre-market stock.

Today, we will discuss—what is a reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi, which is expected to become the “number one prediction market stock”?

Overview of Existing Pricing on Tokenized Trading Platforms for Crypto Stocks and Tokens: PreStocks, Jarsy

As of writing, there is a noticeable price difference in Kalshi’s pre-market stock prices across two major tokenized trading platforms:

On PreStocks, Kalshi’s pre-market stock price includes two figures—

One is the implied market cap (market liquidity pricing level), with a per-share price of about $369;

The other is the capital market cap (current financing valuation level), with a per-share price of about $364.

On Jarsy, Kalshi’s pre-market per-share price has already risen to around $504.

It’s worth noting that compared to our previous article “Kalshi Pre-Market Price Surges, Is It Still a Good Time to Buy?”, the pre-market prices on these two platforms have experienced some fluctuations. The prices at that time were:

• On PreStocks, the implied market cap was about $14 billion, with a per-share price of approximately $407;

• On Jarsy, the market valuation was about $11 billion, with a per-share price of around $450.

In other words, PreStocks’ price has dropped from $407 to about $369, while Jarsy’s price has risen from $450 to about $504.

For comparison, the pre-market stock prices in traditional financial markets have also seen some changes—

• On Nasdaq Private Market, Kalshi’s per-share price has increased from about $307 to around $320;

• On Hiive, Kalshi’s per-share price has risen from about $357 to approximately $358.

Reasonable Pre-Market Price Range for Kalshi Stocks: $320–$423

Last year, Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series E funding round, with a valuation of $11 billion.

Based on the above-mentioned market cap and corresponding stock prices, the total number of Kalshi shares is approximately 30.72 million to 34.3 million.

Specifically, the share count is calculated as follows—

Using a $11 billion valuation with traditional market pre-market prices of $320 and $358, the estimated number of Kalshi shares is about 30.72 million to 34.37 million;

Based on the implied market cap / tokenized stock price and capital market cap / stock calibration price on PreStocks, the share count is approximately 34.27 million to 34.30 million;

Using Jarsy’s pre-market purchase price per share, with a maximum valuation of $18.665 billion and a per-share price of $604.84, the share count is about 30.86 million.

Based on this information, we can make the following inferences:

First, with a valuation of $11 billion, the reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi is approximately $320–$358. In other words, the current prices on crypto tokenized trading platforms like PreStocks and Jarsy are relatively high.

Second, Kalshi’s trading volume in January reached $9.5 billion, close to the overall prediction market size of about $10 billion in October last year. At that time, Kalshi’s market share was roughly 50% of the prediction market. Based on this, Kalshi’s current market valuation is at least over $15 billion.

Third, based on a $15 billion valuation and the share count range, the pre-market stock price range for Kalshi is approximately $436–$488.

Therefore, if the share count aligns with expectations and assuming a $15 billion implied market cap, a conservative estimate for the pre-market stock price range is $320–$378 (calculated as the average of the lowest price range). An optimistic estimate would be $358–$423 (based on the average of the highest price range).

From these data points, Jarsy’s pre-market price for Kalshi appears somewhat high, while PreStocks presents some arbitrage opportunities.

Additionally, the latest tokenized stock trading platform Tessera plans to open equity public offerings in the future, which readers can consider as an alternative (invitation code here).

Combining previous information from Odaily Planet Daily’s article “Data Calculation: Polymarket’s Annual Revenue Exceeds 100 Million Is Not Difficult, Provided That…”:

Based on the trading volume and fee ratio of the “15-minute crypto price rise and fall” market on Polymarket, a static estimate suggests that, under current trading volume and structure, if Polymarket introduces similar fee models across all markets, it could generate annual revenue of $418 million.

As a prediction market platform with larger trading volume and higher fees, and considering the upcoming sports event year in 2026, Kalshi’s annual revenue is expected to surpass the estimated revenue of Polymarket. This suggests that future capital markets may further elevate Kalshi’s pre-market stock price.