Yesterday, we saw NFP grow by 130K in January, while the unemployment rate declined.
Even though this isn’t bullish in the short term, since it pushes projected rate cuts further out, I believe it’s constructive over the mid to long run, as it signals that the U.S. labor market remains resilient. Weakness in the labor market is typically one of the earliest indicators of recession. As long as the macroeconomic environment stays resilient, I believe markets should remain structurally intact. The main risk, in my view, is short-term downside volatility, which can be mitigated by hedging at technical breakdowns and then rotating capital back into spot holdings to prepare for a reversal to the upside.
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Yesterday, we saw NFP grow by 130K in January, while the unemployment rate declined.
Even though this isn’t bullish in the short term, since it pushes projected rate cuts further out, I believe it’s constructive over the mid to long run, as it signals that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.
Weakness in the labor market is typically one of the earliest indicators of recession.
As long as the macroeconomic environment stays resilient, I believe markets should remain structurally intact.
The main risk, in my view, is short-term downside volatility, which can be mitigated by hedging at technical breakdowns and then rotating capital back into spot holdings to prepare for a reversal to the upside.