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Cryptic Trades Portfolio - Q1 2026 - One-Pager
Changes in exposure:
Most of the changes you’re seeing come from portfolio performance developments that naturally shifted the percentage weight of certain positions, even without me making active adjustments. The changes I did make are:
Increased exposure in: USD, TLT, LULU, UPS, AMD, BABA, IREN, CIFR
Decreased exposure in: MARA, CLSK, MSTR, OSCR, COIN
Added: N/A
The reason I reduced my exposure to MARA, CLSK, and MSTR is because I rebalanced into other Bitcoin miners, such as IREN and CIFR, or used part of the capital to rotate entirely into def
Changes in exposure:
Most of the changes you’re seeing come from portfolio performance developments that naturally shifted the percentage weight of certain positions, even without me making active adjustments. The changes I did make are:
Increased exposure in: USD, TLT, LULU, UPS, AMD, BABA, IREN, CIFR
Decreased exposure in: MARA, CLSK, MSTR, OSCR, COIN
Added: N/A
The reason I reduced my exposure to MARA, CLSK, and MSTR is because I rebalanced into other Bitcoin miners, such as IREN and CIFR, or used part of the capital to rotate entirely into def
BTC-1,3%
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The Fear and Greed Index is currently showing levels of fear higher than:
March 2020
June 2022
November 2022
August 2024
April 2025
This is where winners are born.
March 2020
June 2022
November 2022
August 2024
April 2025
This is where winners are born.
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Yesterday, we saw NFP grow by 130K in January, while the unemployment rate declined.
Even though this isn’t bullish in the short term, since it pushes projected rate cuts further out, I believe it’s constructive over the mid to long run, as it signals that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.
Weakness in the labor market is typically one of the earliest indicators of recession.
As long as the macroeconomic environment stays resilient, I believe markets should remain structurally intact.
The main risk, in my view, is short-term downside volatility, which can be mitigated by hedging at tec
Even though this isn’t bullish in the short term, since it pushes projected rate cuts further out, I believe it’s constructive over the mid to long run, as it signals that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.
Weakness in the labor market is typically one of the earliest indicators of recession.
As long as the macroeconomic environment stays resilient, I believe markets should remain structurally intact.
The main risk, in my view, is short-term downside volatility, which can be mitigated by hedging at tec
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$ETH – The price has bounced on the low timeframes; however, it has rejected at an important support range marked in purple at $2.1K, which was lost on the way down.
Because of this, until we see clear signs of strength, such as price reclaiming this lost support range, I believe the most likely outcome remains further downside into the high-timeframe support range marked in green, aligning with the early-April bottoming formation, before a more durable reversal to the upside.
That’s why I’m keeping my hedges in place to mitigate downside risk on the low timeframes.
Because of this, until we see clear signs of strength, such as price reclaiming this lost support range, I believe the most likely outcome remains further downside into the high-timeframe support range marked in green, aligning with the early-April bottoming formation, before a more durable reversal to the upside.
That’s why I’m keeping my hedges in place to mitigate downside risk on the low timeframes.
ETH-0,8%
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We’ve just shared this quarter’s Macro Report, covering the U.S. macro environment, China, cross-asset correlations, on-chain data, and my strategy going forward, making it the most important and complete report I’ve ever released.You can read it here:
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Good night.
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Google Trends on "how to short" have reached a peak.
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Funding Rates negative across the board.Longs got flushed. It’s time for Max Fuckery to go both ways.
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The Weekly Market Wrap-Up is officially back, after a couple of missed weeks! This is one of the most important ones I\'ve shared in a long-time and it\'s literally a $10-$15/mo newsletter I share for ABSOLUTELY FREE! Check it out here:
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Over $2.4B in longs got liquidated in the past 24 hours.Avoid leverage.
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Make sure to have notifications active. ✅The Weekly Market Wrap-Up drops in just a couple of hours and you won’t to miss this.
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“Safe-haven”
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4am currently in Romania. Prepared tons of updates, reports and threads that will be uploaded tomorrow morning.Stay tuned!
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Unpopular opinion: What if crypto already went through a bear market in 2025 and now we’ve entered a new bull?
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