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Prithvir
Biggest Prediction Market movers in the last 24 hours
1. Jordan Bardella wins French presidential election: 39%
2. Fed cuts rate 25 bps at April meeting: 31%
3. Paramount takeover of Warner Bros before July: 34%
(filtered out markets w less than $100k liq and $10k vol)
1. Jordan Bardella wins French presidential election: 39%
2. Fed cuts rate 25 bps at April meeting: 31%
3. Paramount takeover of Warner Bros before July: 34%
(filtered out markets w less than $100k liq and $10k vol)
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Remotion was a mistake. Roll it back\n\nTimeline now:\nai-slop-launch-vid\nai-slop-launch-vid\nai-slop-launch-vid\n.
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To everyone who said prediction markets are just sports, here’s the CEO of a $110b company:\n\n1. Weather and temperature contracts are the most frequently traded\n2. Utilities will soon hedge electricity and natural gas contracts using these markets\n\nPrediction markets are already institutional\n\nYou’re just not paying close enough attention
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WSJ and NYT will give you emotional opinion pieces on Greenland.
Prediction markets will give you unbiased odds.
1. US takes control of a part of Greenland by 2029 = 42%
2. Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 = 20%
3. Greenland acquired for $600b to $899b = 17%
4. Trump invades Greenland in 2026 = 11%
Prediction markets will give you unbiased odds.
1. US takes control of a part of Greenland by 2029 = 42%
2. Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 = 20%
3. Greenland acquired for $600b to $899b = 17%
4. Trump invades Greenland in 2026 = 11%
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every single financial innovation since 2020 was driven directly or indirectly by crypto
directly:
> stablecoins
> tokenization
> perpetual futures
> prediction markets
> nakamoto consensus
> automated market makers
indirectly:
> instant bank settlement
banks were forced to match 24x7 and T+0 expectations
> embedded finance
wallets trained users to expect financial actions inside any app
> bnpl
exchanges normalized instant risk-based credit at checkout
> ai underwriting
defi lending introduced real-time collateral and liquidation engines
> open-banking payments
defi composability prov
directly:
> stablecoins
> tokenization
> perpetual futures
> prediction markets
> nakamoto consensus
> automated market makers
indirectly:
> instant bank settlement
banks were forced to match 24x7 and T+0 expectations
> embedded finance
wallets trained users to expect financial actions inside any app
> bnpl
exchanges normalized instant risk-based credit at checkout
> ai underwriting
defi lending introduced real-time collateral and liquidation engines
> open-banking payments
defi composability prov
DEFI2,34%
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Pretty cool to see NYSE doubling down on tokenization.
1. 24x7 trading of US stocks and ETFs
2. Fractional shares
3. Instant on-chain settlement
4. Stablecoin-based funding
How many more years before NYSE perps?
1. 24x7 trading of US stocks and ETFs
2. Fractional shares
3. Instant on-chain settlement
4. Stablecoin-based funding
How many more years before NYSE perps?
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GateUser-1a2345c1:
Hold tight 💪:Prediction Market Weekly Update
Notional Volume
1. @Kalshi $2.01b
2. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.60b
3. @Polymarket $1.50b
4. @PredictProtocol $109m
5. @ForecastEx $32m
6. @Trylimitless $9.0m
7. @MyriadMarkets $1.8m
Total $5.26b
WoW -0.7%
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $356m
2. @Polymarket $287m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $132m
4. @PredictProtocol $21.9m
5. @ForecastEx $3.6m
6. @MyriadMarkets $0.75m
7. @Trylimitless $0.69m
Total $801m
WoW +19.6%
Transactions
1. @Polymarket 11.40m
2. @Kalshi 11.08m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz 683k
4. @MyriadMarkets 167k
5. @Trylimitless 154k
6. @PredictProtocol 111k
7. @ForecastEx 71k
Total
Notional Volume
1. @Kalshi $2.01b
2. @Opinionlabsxyz $1.60b
3. @Polymarket $1.50b
4. @PredictProtocol $109m
5. @ForecastEx $32m
6. @Trylimitless $9.0m
7. @MyriadMarkets $1.8m
Total $5.26b
WoW -0.7%
Open Interest
1. @Kalshi $356m
2. @Polymarket $287m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz $132m
4. @PredictProtocol $21.9m
5. @ForecastEx $3.6m
6. @MyriadMarkets $0.75m
7. @Trylimitless $0.69m
Total $801m
WoW +19.6%
Transactions
1. @Polymarket 11.40m
2. @Kalshi 11.08m
3. @Opinionlabsxyz 683k
4. @MyriadMarkets 167k
5. @Trylimitless 154k
6. @PredictProtocol 111k
7. @ForecastEx 71k
Total
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These Iran markets have:
• Date ladders
• Conditional chains
• Cross-event dependencies
Exactly the kind of structure where advanced order types and cross-market routing matter.
Prediction markets are becoming a quant playground.
• Date ladders
• Conditional chains
• Cross-event dependencies
Exactly the kind of structure where advanced order types and cross-market routing matter.
Prediction markets are becoming a quant playground.
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Hey @grok, reply with what you think the annual trading volume for prediction markets will be in 2026.
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Interesting
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everyone on the timeline
> omg AI is insane, we’re 4x more productive now, SWE is dead
same people in private forums and dms
> hiring a react dev, will pay $20k commission if he joins
> omg AI is insane, we’re 4x more productive now, SWE is dead
same people in private forums and dms
> hiring a react dev, will pay $20k commission if he joins
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Weak men react emotionally to Venezuela and Iran
Strong men analyze the chess board unemotionally by studying history
Spengler and Durant are probably the most useful sources to understand this period of the American empire
Strong men analyze the chess board unemotionally by studying history
Spengler and Durant are probably the most useful sources to understand this period of the American empire
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